About Tier 3 - Dimension
Requires several pieces of reasoning to be organised into a solution.
Difficulty describes the challenge, not the solver. It is a Society guide rather than a formal academic level.
The tier is a Society guide to the amount of reasoning, technical work and insight a problem is expected to require. Your experience may vary depending on the topic and your background.
Which Box Did It Come From?
Probability / Bayes' Theorem - 5-8 min
Box A contains two gold balls and one silver ball. Box B contains one gold ball and two silver balls. You choose one box with probability one half for each box, then draw one of its three balls uniformly at random.
The ball drawn is gold. Given that observation, what is the probability that you chose box A?
Assumptions
The two boxes are selected with equal probability. Within the chosen box, every ball is equally likely to be drawn. There is one draw, with no further information about the selection.
More Options for Which Box Did It Come From?
Collection question · Revision 1 · ID: bayes-boxes